India's Monsoon Has Fallen Far Behind. Here's What It Means For Crops And Inflation

Summary

India is on track to record its driest June in more than 15 years, with the southwest monsoon significantly behind schedule and rainfall lagging long term averages. The country has received 85.2 millimeters of rainfall between June 1 and June 28, which is well below the long period average of 149.8 millimeters, resulting in a cumulative rainfall deficit of more than 43 percent. This shortfall has raised concerns over kharif sowing, food prices, and the broader agricultural outlook, with weather experts warning that strengthening El Niño conditions could keep rainfall under pressure in the coming weeks.